In the Money: 5 Things to Know

Futures pop on weaker inflation, UnitedHealth holds back the Dow, crypto deals, Super Micro upgraded, Alberta's population boom

In this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar top tech investor Dan Niles warns that the market could drop as much as 50%, just like during the dot-com bust and the global financial crisis. He unpacks the major risks that investors aren’t paying enough attention to like AI over exuberance and demand being pulled forward as a result of Trump’s trade war, while drawing parallels to some of the worst market crashes in history. You can listen on Apple, Spotify or here.

Dis-inflation surprise: Futures got a lift from a read of inflation in the US that showed headline inflation unexpectedly cooled year over year to the lowest level in four years. Headline inflation only grew 2.3% down from 2.4% while month to month figures didn’t pick up as much as anticipated. This coupled with positive developments on tariffs is helping investors feel comfortable that the inflation genie might be going back in the bottle. This now marks three months in a row that the print has come in lower than expected. We saw a monster day in stocks south of the border with the S&P 500 surging more than 3% to put in its best daily performance since…April when the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs were announced. “The best performing stocks yesterday were names that got hit the hardest during the post-"Liberation Day" crash from April 2nd to April 8th, notes Bespoke.” This leaves the index 3% higher than Liberation Day and less than 5% away from its all-time high in February. The big debate is what all of this means for the Federal Reserve. As of now the market is betting that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates with the first rate cut penciled in for September but this morning’s inflation print is amplifying voices who say the Fed is behind the curve (President Trump being one of those voices). As the tensions continue to melt, Boeing is popping 1% after China remove the ban on Boeing deliveries. The TSX rallied, but was held back by a significant drop in gold stocks. Today there are 10 companies reporting on the TSX, including CAE after the bell. Today we will also get a look at the ministers that will form Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government. Reports suggest that half of the ministers will be made up of people who didn’t serve under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. New names to watch include Timothy Hodgson, former head of Goldman Sachs in Canada, Gregor Robertson, former Mayor of Vancouver, and Carlos Leitao, economist and former finance minister of Quebec.

Divided health: Shares of UnitedHealth are holding back the Dow this morning, plunging 7% in the pre-market after yanking its financial forecasts and announcing a CEO change. The embattled health insurer said it is suspending its 2025 forecasts as medical costs came in higher than expected. At the same time, the company announced CEO Andrew Witty would be stepping down for “personal reasons” and former CEO and current board Chair Stephen Hemsley would take over. While the news is jolting investors, UnitedHealth is promising a return to growth for 2026 and eventually growing 13-16%. Just last month UnitedHealth slashed its forecast and the stock plunged 23%. Shares are currently languishing at the lowest level since 2021.

Cryptofiles: Coinbase is surging 10% in the pre-market on news that it will be added to the S&P 500 making it the first crypto company to enter the blue-chip index. Coinbase will be replacing Discover Financial starting May 19th. Stocks tend to trade up when they get included in an index because passive investors are induced into buying the stock to keep up with the index. It is a stunning turn of fortunes when you consider one year ago the company was under investigation by the SEC. (Recall, the Biden Administration was incredibly hostile to crypto companies.) Coinbase had a cheeky post about how this all went down “First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they fight you. Then they add you to the S&P 500…or something like that.” In other crypto news, shares of Canadian crypto exchange WonderFi will likely pop after reaching a deal to be purchased by Robinhood. At $0.36/share the $250 million deal is a 41% premium to where the stock closed yesterday, but down 92% from the peak during the pandemic.

Notable call: Super Micro is getting a hearty endorsement from Raymond James who calls the maker of high functioning servers a “near AI pure play.” With 70% of revenue now coming from AI, Raymond James’ Simon Leopold says “the company combines scale manufacturing, with innovative engineering and the ability to produce highly customized platforms.” While the stock has been hit by a recent profit warning, Leopold says that was just because of product transitions (switching from one Nvidia chip to another). Their price target is $41/share which implies 28% upside from here.

Go West: Alberta just passed the 5 million mark when it comes to the number of people living in the province according to Statistics Canada’s live population clock. This real-time model shows that Alberta crossed the milestone last night, adding 1 million residents in just over a decade according to Rob Roach of ATB Economics. “International migration contributed the most over this period, but Alberta’s faster population growth relative to other provinces was driven by interprovincial gains and natural increase (births minus deaths),” wrote Roach. While the population in all of Canada is increasing because of international migration, Alberta has benefitted disproportionately from people leaving another province to move to Alberta. “It’s the most volatile source of growth, but interprovincial migration is expected to be the second largest contributor to population increase,” said Roach. Alberta could soon over take British Columbia as the third most populous province.